運用主成分分析法估計船舶鋼料重量

Steel Weight Estimation of New Ships Using Principal Component Analysis

針對初步設計（initial design）的鋼料重量估算，首先從台船三維設計系統中，取得研究的貨櫃船設計船型，來建立資料庫。然後運用主成分分析法（principal component analysis），分析主要尺寸與船舶的分段參數後，設計了兩種預估方法。「全船預估法」透過主要尺寸參數，推估全船鋼料重量。「分段預估法」對全船進行分段定義，首先透過主要足寸取得相似的參考船的分段參數，來分別推估各個分段，再經加總得知全船鋼料重量，然後從概略佈置圖（rough arrangement），採用與船東擬定的分段參數，來修正預估結果。兩種方法分別經由線性迴歸得到「估計參數」與「預估重量」的關係式，並藉此建立估計系統。經驗證於本研究的參考船，「分段預估法」比「全船預估法」更準確，並能藉由估計分段重量，具有支援重心計算、線型設計與性能評估等初步設計作業的應用價值。 This paper presents an agile model to estimate the weight of steel in the initial design stage of a ship. A container ship database was obtained from the database of the three-dimensional computer-aided design systems of the CSBC Corporation. Principal Component Analysis was applied to define the principal parameters, i.e., the principal dimension and the parameters of the ship's segments. Then, two methods were developed for estimating a new ship. The first method uses the principal dimension to estimate the weight of the steel in the entire ship. The second method is based on the division of a ship into several structural segments and uses the parameters of the individual segments to estimate each segment. The parameters of the individual segments are referenced from a similar vessel selected using the principal dimension. Then, the parameters of the individual segrnents are obtained from a rough arrangement negotiated with the ship owner to adjust the estimated weight. A linear regression is used to investigate the relationships between the parameters and the estimated weight for both methods and then the estimation system is built. By comparing the variability in the estimations, the segment estimation provides a more accurate steel weight and also provides a new way of efficiently obtaining the weight distribution necessary to support the related preliminary design, i.e., the center of gravity, the design of the ship lines and an evaluation of ship performance.