教育、經濟發展與政治民主之關聯研究：跨時間數列的探索

Test of the Relationships among the Educational, Economic Development and Political Democracy: Time Series Exploration

基於現代化理論及人力資本理論，本研究旨在瞭解各國教育發展（初等教育與中等教育在學率）、經濟發展（包括國民所得與都市化程度）與政治民主（包含政權指數、民權指數與新聞自由）之關聯性。本研究建立理論模式，納入分析的國家有145個，透過結構方程式模式分析，獲得結論如下：各國教育發展對政治民主，以及各國政治民主對教育發展都有正向顯著影響，而各國經濟發展對於政治民主則沒有明顯影響。上述代表了各國教育擴充有益於政治民主提升，而政治民主也對於教育擴充有正面助益，經濟發展則否。最後，OECD國家的教育在學率、國民所得、都市化程度、政治民主化的程度高於非OECD國家；而非洲國家在上述的發展變項均明顯低於各地理區，而以歐洲國家的表現最好。 Based on the modernization theory and human capital theory, the purpose of this study is to explore the relationships between the educational development (e.g. the enrollment ratio of primary education, the enrollment ratio of secondary education), economic development (e.g. per capital income, urbanization), and political democracy ( e.g. political index, civil liberty, media freedom). Data are gathered from 145 countries. Relationship model was tested using the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results show that there exist a positive significant relationship between educational development and political democracy. In addition, time-lag effects were also found between educational development and political democracy. However, economic development is found to have no influence on political democracy. Finally, results show that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries performed significantly better than non-OECD nations with regards to their enrollment ratio of education, per capital income, urbanization, and political democracy. In particular, African countries performed the poorest, while European countries are ranked as the best in the world with regards to the above mentioned variables.