券商分析師樂觀盈餘預測與所屬券商自營部門買賣超之關連性

The Connection between Securities Analysts’ Optimistic Earnings Forecasts and The Affiliated Dealer Department’s Operation

本文主要探討券商分析師對台灣地區上市櫃公司發佈盈餘預測時，所出現的樂觀盈餘預測是否是因為分析師本身的認知失誤，抑或是基於某些誘因下的有意圖的行為。結果發現：大多數券商分析師會作出樂觀的盈餘預測，而且所隸屬之自營部門會在此樂觀預測公佈後有明顯的賣超個股情形。這個結果雖無法全然排除分析師樂觀預測是由其本身的認知失誤所造成，但可證實券商分析師樂觀的盈餘預測應是有意圖下的行為。 This study investigates Taiwan securities analysts’ optimistic earnings forecasts aredue to the analysts’ cognitive failure or incentive-driving. We find that most of securitiesanalysts will provide optimistic earnings forecasts, and the affiliated dealer department willstart selling out the stocks after forecasts announcement. Although we can’t exclude theprobability that analysts’ optimistic earnings forecasts come from their own cognitivefailure, this result could confirm the optimistic forecasts by analysts are most likely to beintentional.