兩岸關係的再平衡：一個雙層賽局的觀點

Rebalancing Cross-Strait Relations: A Two-Level Game Model

2008 年馬英九當選總統後兩岸關係趨向和緩，在相互合作的氣氛中，2010 年6 月，兩岸簽訂海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）。這項協議被視為兩岸關係的重大進展。然而，3 年後，作為ECFA 後續協定的海峽兩岸服務貿易協議（CSSTA）卻遭受到了民間大量阻力而遲遲無法實行，還在2014年3 月爆發了太陽花學運。太陽花學運可以說是反應出臺灣民意的變化。而同時，在2012 年習近平上臺以後，中共的各項政策也都做了為幅不小的改變進而也影響中共對臺政策的優先性。本文以兩階段賽局（two-levelgames）為架構，分析民眾偏好的改變對該國政府外交政策的影響，及其政策應調整的方向。並以兩岸關係為例，說明當臺灣民眾及中國新領導人的政策偏好發生變化，而且變化的方向一致時，例如同時都更加重視臺灣的主權問題，此時兩岸間將可能爆發重大衝突。但是如果雙方所關注的焦點不同，雖然可能造成僵局或關係的倒退，但卻會是一個雙方都能滿意的結果。 On March 2014, the Sunflower Student Movement broke out in Taiwanin protest of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement(CSSTA) after theEconomic Cooperation Framework Agreement(ECFA) was signed just 4years prior. The Sunflower Student Movement signified a shift of publicopinion in Taiwan. Meanwhile, in 2012, Xi Jinping took the office as the newleader of Mainland China. In a different environment with new challenges,Xi has different policy priorities from his predecessor. In this paper, I employa two-level game model to analyze how the change in Taiwan’s publicopinion indirectly influences Taiwan’s diplomatic policy. I also use the cross-Strait relations as an example to illustrate that when Taiwan’s new publicopinion and Mainland China’s new leader both change in the same direction,for example, with Taiwan’s sovereignty issue as a common focus, a bigconflict may break out. However, if they do not share a common focus, evenat the expense of cross-Strait relations deadlock or backtrack, both sideswould be satisfied with a new situation.