走私及檢疫投入對肉雞產業影響之經濟分析

Economic Analysis on the Impact of Smuggling, Prevention and Control Inputs on Taiwan's Broiler Industry

本研究以我國肉雞產業為對象，透過計量模型分析市場供需結構，並以此市場供需模型評估模擬，分析禽流感（H5N1）爆發後提高走私量、提升走私查緝率、增加疫苗防治成本及增加進口禽肉產品的檢疫重量等四種情況對我國肉雞產業的影響，並計算福利的變動。研究結果顯示：當禽流感侵襲後政府增加疫苗防治劑量投入，將使白色肉雞平均每季產地價格約減少0.0717%，而零售價格變動率將逐漸減少。最後，模擬政府政策實施禽流感撲滅計劃的福利測度結果發現，於全面停止施打防疫疫苗的清除階段期間中，社會剩餘增加10.64億元；於宣告撲滅禽流感的完成階段，亦即與未撲滅禽流感前相比較，社會剩餘增加15.02億元，由此可知實施禽流感撲滅計劃將對社會產生正面助益。 Using the market clearing model for Taiwan's broiler industry, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of Avian Influenza breaking out on the incremental cost from vaccines control, smuggling amount, smuggling investigation rate, and broiler product weight, by simulating the social welfare changing under above four scenarios. The empirical finding indicates that government would enormously increase the vaccines inputs while facing the Avian Influenza hits, which causes the average farm price of broiler to decease by 0.0717% and also to decrease gradually the changing rate of retail price in turn. Finally, the result simulating the larger scale of terminating the infected poultry presents that social welfare increases NT$ 10.64 billion during the period of implementing vaccines control. Compared the condition with no termination action, the social welfare significantly enhances NT$ 15.02 billion. This implied that the termination action on the infected poultry substantially leads to positive benefits on overall social welfare.

Using the market clearing model for Taiwan's broiler industry, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of Avian Influenza breaking out on the incremental cost from vaccines control, smuggling amount, smuggling investigation rate, and broiler product weight, by simulating the social welfare changing under above four scenarios. The empirical finding indicates that government would enormously increase the vaccines inputs while facing the Avian Influenza hits, which causes the average farm price of broiler to decease by 0.0717% and also to decrease gradually the changing rate of retail price in turn. Finally, the result simulating the larger scale of terminating the infected poultry presents that social welfare increases NT$ 10.64 billion during the period of implementing vaccines control. Compared the condition with no termination action, the social welfare significantly enhances NT$ 15.02 billion. This implied that the termination action on the infected poultry substantially leads to positive benefits on overall social welfare.