入會後關稅減讓及取消漁船用油價格優惠政策對臺灣農畜漁產業之一般均衡分析

General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of WTO Accession and the Elimination of the Fishery Fuel Tax Exemption on Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery Sectors in Taiwan

本研究依據主計處1996年之完整投入產出表，建構64個細部門及67個商品之可計算一般均衡模型，模擬臺灣加入WTO，農、畜、漁及工商業於2004年完成降稅承諾時關稅分別減讓44.67%、35.90%、40.80%及29.11%，對台灣總體經濟及農畜漁及食品加工等初級產業的影響。此外，為避免已執行40多年油價優惠政策將可能對其他會員國的利益或因對海洋資源的永續利用產生不利效果而被列為禁止性的補貼，我國主動於2002年9月起將漁業動力用油優惠標準減半，並公告自2005年9月起取消優惠，則甲種漁船用油價格將增加38.89%，乙種漁船用油價格將增加47.06%，將使得漁撈業作業成本大幅增加。因漁業部門生產方式中，養殖及捕撈業的漁產品種類及成本結構皆有顯著差異，所以本文將原始160部門投入產出表中原設為單一漁業部門進一步拆解為遠洋、沿近海及養殖三個部門。總體經濟在長期情境下，就業量外生，模擬入會關稅減讓承諾將對台灣實資GDP增加0.03%，此結果顯示出關稅減讓措施在長期對我國總體經濟有利。但若名目工資具僵固性，在短期情境下允許短期內有失業的可能，則隨著市場的開放，我國總就業量將減少0.87%，實資GDP 則減少0.57%。本文並評估入會後農、畜、遠洋、沿近海、養殖及食品加工業國產產值分別減少458.31億元、251.94億元、0.46億元、24.50億元、14.95億元及639.46億元。若加上取消漁業用油優惠之衝擊，則沿近海漁業部門國產品產值損失將倍增為52.51億元，其勞動報酬將減少至23.13億元，且因進口替代的關係使進口值增加至58.01億元，因此取消漁業用油優惠對沿近海漁業部門之衝擊將較其受關稅減讓的損失來得大。 Bases on 1996 data from Taiwan's Input-Output tables, this study specified a computable general equilibrium model of 64 sectors and 67 commodities to evaluate the impacts of the following tariff reductions that are announced to be implemented in 2004: agriculture 44.67%, livestock 35.90%, fishery 40.80%, industry and the commerce sectors 29.11%. The results are then compared to the impact of the removal of an existing fuel tax exemptions. Since the current policy on fuel tax exemption may be identified as subsidies on fishery sector which is prohibited by WTO, the Taiwanese government has reduced the fuel tax exemption in half since September 2002 and will remove the remaining tax exemption in September 2005. The cost of diesel fuel would increase significantly by 38.89% and that of lubricant by 47.06%. Despite of their different cost structure, fishing and aquaculture have been treated as one single sector in the 160 input-output tables. In order to properly assess the impact on the fishery sector of removing the fuel tax exemption, this study considers the individual fishing gear cost structures for three separate subsectors. Hence we disaggregate aquaculture fishery, which was originally considered as one single sector in the 160-input-output table, into far-sea fishery, offshore/coastal and aquaculture fishery subsectors.The study finds that entering WTO seems beneficial to Taiwan's macro economy in the long run if the employment is treated as exogenous; the commitment on tariff reductions would increase the real GDP by 0.03%. However, in the short run, if the nominal wages are fixed and total employment is treated as endogenous, tariff reductions will cause the total employment to decrease by 0.87% and the real GDP will fall by 0.57%. After Taiwan entering the WTO, the output value of domestic agriculture, livestock, far-sea fishery, offshore/coastal fishery, aquaculture fishery, and food processing sectors will decrease by NT$45.831, 25.194, 0.046, 2.450, 1.495 and 63.946 billion, respectively. The impact of removing the tax exemption on fuel on the offshore/coastal fishery is that the value of domestic output will decrease by NT$ 5.251 billion while the employment payment in this sector would decrease NT$ 2.313 billion. But total imports will increase by NT$5.801 billion because of substitution effects. Hence it appears that the offshore/coastal fishery may suffer more from the removal the fuel tax exemption than from the tariff reduction resulting from Taiwan’s accession to the WTO.

Bases on 1996 data from Taiwan's Input-Output tables, this study specified a computable general equilibrium model of 64 sectors and 67 commodities to evaluate the impacts of the following tariff reductions that are announced to be implemented in 2004: agriculture 44.67%, livestock 35.90%, fishery 40.80%, industry and the commerce sectors 29.11%. The results are then compared to the impact of the removal of an existing fuel tax exemptions. Since the current policy on fuel tax exemption may be identified as subsidies on fishery sector which is prohibited by WTO, the Taiwanese government has reduced the fuel tax exemption in half since September 2002 and will remove the remaining tax exemption in September 2005. The cost of diesel fuel would increase significantly by 38.89% and that of lubricant by 47.06%. Despite of their different cost structure, fishing and aquaculture have been treated as one single sector in the 160 input-output tables. In order to properly assess the impact on the fishery sector of removing the fuel tax exemption, this study considers the individual fishing gear cost structures for three separate subsectors. Hence we disaggregate aquaculture fishery, which was originally considered as one single sector in the 160-input-output table, into far-sea fishery, offshore/coastal and aquaculture fishery subsectors.The study finds that entering WTO seems beneficial to Taiwan's macro economy in the long run if the employment is treated as exogenous; the commitment on tariff reductions would increase the real GDP by 0.03%. However, in the short run, if the nominal wages are fixed and total employment is treated as endogenous, tariff reductions will cause the total employment to decrease by 0.87% and the real GDP will fall by 0.57%. After Taiwan entering the WTO, the output value of domestic agriculture, livestock, far-sea fishery, offshore/coastal fishery, aquaculture fishery, and food processing sectors will decrease by NT$45.831, 25.194, 0.046, 2.450, 1.495 and 63.946 billion, respectively. The impact of removing the tax exemption on fuel on the offshore/coastal fishery is that the value of domestic output will decrease by NT$ 5.251 billion while the employment payment in this sector would decrease NT$ 2.313 billion. But total imports will increase by NT$5.801 billion because of substitution effects. Hence it appears that the offshore/coastal fishery may suffer more from the removal the fuel tax exemption than from the tariff reduction resulting from Taiwan’s accession to the WTO.