加入WTO甜柿進口衝擊及關稅配額管理方案之研究

Economic Impacts and Tariff Rate Quotas Management Method of Persimmon Imports after Joining WTO

加入WTO後，台灣承諾將22種列為限制進口之農產品，改為採取「關稅配額」（Tariff Rate Quota, TRQ）方式辦理進口。因此，在WTO架構下，甜柿進口TRQ管理配套措施直接影響進口衝擊及整個甜柿產業的未來發展。本文首先分析國內甜柿產品之產量、消費及進出口的一般經濟概況，應用數理經濟分別推導出台灣甜柿市場供給與需求之超越函數計量模型，並分別配置上1999-2001年台灣農家柿子生產成本調查樣本資料，以及1999-2001年台灣農產品批發市場交易系統資料，以測定出國內甜柿產品實證計量系統供給與需求函數。針對不同關稅進口政策作實證模擬，本文計量評估不同進口政策對台灣甜柿產業及市場所產生的衝擊影響效果；最後，綜合研擬建議，促進新世紀下台灣甜柿產業結構性發展相關策略的可行途徑和方法。 The main purposes of this study are to construct an empirical econometric model for measuring the supply and demand of persimmon product, to estimate the quantity of domestic supply, demand and import potential under WTO free trade import scheme, to estimate the impacts of trade competition on persimmon product, and finally to analyze and discuss the negotiation efficiency of the practical TRQ policies set up for persimmon importation in action.The empirical analyses revealed that the quantity of domestic import potential could fully fill the tariff quota required under the within-quota rate (25%). As estimated, the practical TRQ administration policies for persimmon will increase the producer surplus among NT$ 742~807 millions. Also, under the over-quota rate (among 144%~122%), the imported products would be difficult to enter the domestic market in the short run. Since the TRQ policies will be canceled on 2007, the market equilibrium price will fall to $108 and it could strongly reduce the total revenue of domestic producers, and therefore we should improve the marketing system. The results also imply that TRQ policies will truly help decreasing the impacts from trade liberalization, and it proves that the previous negotiations are successful in a sense to protect the domestic persimmon industry from serious import competition.

The main purposes of this study are to construct an empirical econometric model for measuring the supply and demand of persimmon product, to estimate the quantity of domestic supply, demand and import potential under WTO free trade import scheme, to estimate the impacts of trade competition on persimmon product, and finally to analyze and discuss the negotiation efficiency of the practical TRQ policies set up for persimmon importation in action.The empirical analyses revealed that the quantity of domestic import potential could fully fill the tariff quota required under the within-quota rate (25%). As estimated, the practical TRQ administration policies for persimmon will increase the producer surplus among NT$ 742∼807 millions. Also, under the over-quota rate (among 144%~122%), the imported products would be difficult to enter the domestic market in the short run. Since the TRQ policies will be canceled on 2007, the market equilibrium price will fall to $108 and it could strongly reduce the total revenue of domestic producers, and therefore we should improve the marketing system. The results also imply that TRQ policies will truly help decreasing the impacts from trade liberalization, and it proves that the previous negotiations are successful in a sense to protect the domestic persimmon industry from serious import competition.