臺灣養殖魚類市場整合研究－－以吳郭魚為例

The Study of Taiwan's Aquaculture Fish Market Integration-Tilapia as Example

本研究主要目的在於應用新近發展的等值臨界模型，對於國內常見之養殖魚類──吳郭魚在臺北、臺中兩地魚市場進行空間整合檢定，並與另兩種市場整合檢定模型──Engle & Granger（1987）二階段共整合模型和Johansen（1988）共整合模型比較，希望藉此三種不同方法之比較，以了解吳郭魚是否在臺北、臺中兩地間存在資訊、物品自由流通，進而符合單一價格法則，達成空間市場整合，並推論市場間是否存有運銷障礙。根據本研究實證結果，吳郭魚於臺北、臺中魚市場間或市場內尚未發現有重大運銷障礙。比較共整合模型及等值臨界模型時可發現，前者在推論市場整合時並未考慮轉運成本，使得市場整合檢定結果有高估現象；而等值臨界模型則利用常態分配求取價差等於、小於及大於轉運成本等三種市場整合情況之機率值，應更能說明兩地市場整合情況機率，此與共整合模型檢定拒絕或接受僅兩種兩極化的結果相比較，其對市場間整合程度應可提供更多的資訊。 The purpose of this article is to apply the parity bounds model testing aquaculture fish market integration in Taipei and Taichung. Using this result compares with Engle & Granger (1987) causality and Johansen (1988) cointegration so that we could understand the situation between of these two markets. If there are any restrictions between them. As a consequence of this empinical study, it seems market intergration. Compared with the parity bounds model, the cointegration approach would over-elvaluated the result of testing market integration. The parity bounds model proposed more information concerning market integration.

The purpose of this article is to apply the parity bounds model testing aquaculture fish market integration in Taipei and Taichung. Using this result compares with Engle & Granger (1987) causality and Johansen (1988) cointegration so that we could understand the situation between of these two markets. If there are any restrictions between them. As a consequence of this empinical study, it seems market intergration. Compared with the parity bounds model, the cointegration approach would over-elvaluated the result of testing market integration. The parity bounds model proposed more information concerning market integration.