臺鐵平交道事故運轉整理決策支援模式之建立

An Operation Adjustments Decision Support Model for Level-Crossing Accidents

當平交道事故發生後，可能造成列車運行混亂，再加上事故處理過程的不確定性及必須考量列車延遲傳播問題與搶修作業。因此，要擬定出一套高品質運轉整理策略不是件易事。基此，本文旨在建立一套平交道事故之運轉整理決策支援模式。首先根據歷史平交道事故，將事故影響時間與列車損傷、路線損傷、人員死亡、人員受傷、鐵路警察分駐所等因子進行迴歸分析建立事故延時模式。再建構列車延遲傳播模型，針對單線不通、雙線不通、尖離峰等情境的列車延遲模擬，推算不同運轉整理策略下旅客延遲情形。結果發現，如以最小旅客總延遲為目標，將以不採取接駁策略為佳；若以最小旅客延遲平方和為目標，當事故處理及延誤時間越嚴重，採取接駁策略反而較有益。 Once a level-crossing accident occurs, it is not easy to make a high-quality and timely decision under uncertain intertwined relationships among accident evolution, delay propagation of neighboring trains, and relief operations. Based on this, this study aims to develop a decision support model for operation adjustments in response to level-crossing accidents. To do so, this study firstly estimated an accident duration model based on historical level-crossing accidents by regressing accident duration time on contributing factors including train damage, railway damage, fatality, injury, and distance to police station. With predicted accident duration, blockage of single line or double line, and frequency density of neighboring trains, a delay propagation simulation model is developed to estimate the total passenger delays under various operation adjustment strategies, including Do nothing, Passenger-transfer, Single-line operation. In terms of passenger total delay, Single-line operation strategy is the best choice in most of cases. However, in terms of total sum of squared passenger delay, if the accident duration is long, passenger-transfer strategy become favorable.

Once a level-crossing accident occurs, it is not easy to make a high-quality and timely decision under uncertain intertwined relationships among accident evolution, delay propagation of neighboring trains, and relief operations. Based on this, this study aims to develop a decision support model for operation adjustments in response to level-crossing accidents. To do so, this study firstly estimated an accident duration model based on historical level-crossing accidents by regressing accident duration time on contributing factors including train damage, railway damage, fatality, injury, and distance to police station. With predicted accident duration, blockage of single line or double line, and frequency density of neighboring trains, a delay propagation simulation model is developed to estimate the total passenger delays under various operation adjustment strategies, including Do nothing, Passenger-transfer, Single-line operation. In terms of passenger total delay, Single-line operation strategy is the best choice in most of cases. However, in terms of total sum of squared passenger delay, if the accident duration is long, passenger-transfer strategy become favorable.