供應鏈關係不確定性對公司信用風險影響之研究

Supply Chain Relationship Uncertainty and Corporate Credit Risk

本研究利用2000 年至2008 年美國公司債資料探討供應鏈關係不確定性對公司信用風險的影響。實證結果顯示，在控制其他影響公司債利差的公司特性及債券特徵變數後，公司與顧客間的關係不確定性與公司債利差成顯著正相關，但公司與供應商間的關係不確定性對公司債利差的影響則為不顯著。此結果顯示公司與顧客間的關係不確定性為影響公司信用風險的重要因素之一。此外，本研究亦發現公司與顧客間的關係不確定性對公司債利差的影響將不受景氣循環而顯著改變。最後，本研究結果在改用其他供應鏈關係不確定性的加權變數或控制其他影響現金流量波動風險的變數下仍成立。 This study explores the effects of supply chain relationship uncertainty (SCRU) oncorporate credit risk by American bond market data from year 2000 to 2008. Empiricalresults show that the firm-customer relationship uncertainty (FCRU) is significantly andpositively related to bond yield spreads, whereas the firm-supplier relationship uncertainty(FSRU) exhibits nonsignificant effects when controlling for other well-known bond yielddeterminant variables. In addition, this research also finds that business cycle conditionnon-significantly changes the FCRU effect on bond yield spreads. Finally, the results wederive by evaluating SCRU variables through other weighted methods or by controllingfor additional variables affecting cash flow variations are robust.

This study explores the effects of supply chain relationship uncertainty (SCRU) oncorporate credit risk by American bond market data from year 2000 to 2008. Empiricalresults show that the firm-customer relationship uncertainty (FCRU) is significantly andpositively related to bond yield spreads, whereas the firm-supplier relationship uncertainty(FSRU) exhibits nonsignificant effects when controlling for other well-known bond yielddeterminant variables. In addition, this research also finds that business cycle conditionnon-significantly changes the FCRU effect on bond yield spreads. Finally, the results wederive by evaluating SCRU variables through other weighted methods or by controllingfor additional variables affecting cash flow variations are robust.