水清無魚？印表機的技術變遷

No Turbulence in River, No Fish? Technological Change in Printers

本研究透過混沌理論的觀點與方法，探討1976年至2010年間，全球印表機的技術變遷。混沌理論提供非線性的思考模式，並對於技術變遷所隱含的連續與不連續、秩序與失序，具有概念上的啟發意涵。本研究先以兩種量化分析工具：局部赫斯特指數與局部李雅普諾夫指數，來檢視印表機產業是否呈現長期記憶與局部混沌，接著再應用此結果來引導個案分析。研究結果發現1988年9月至1992年10月經歷第一次混沌，2008年4月至2009年11月經歷第二次混沌，且在每一次混沌後，產業中技術典範的脫穎而出，正如水中的魚在濁水中於焉而生。 This paper examines the chaos of technological change in printers during the period 1976~2010. Chaos theory, developed to reveal the structure of nonlinearity, provides implications for the relationship between continuity and discontinuity, order and disorder in technological change processes. To apply chaos theory to technological change, we used two mathematical tools, local Hurst exponent (LHE) and local Lyapunov exponent (LLE), to detect the long-term memory and chaotic patterns in printers. The results of this quantitative analysis were then used to guide our interpretative analysis of technological changes in printers. Findings show that chaos occurred in the periods from September 1988 to October 1992, and from April 2008 to November 2009. Paradigms or standards emerged after those chaotic periods, just like the fish would appear in the turbulence.

This paper examines the chaos of technological change in printers during the period 1976~2010. Chaos theory, developed to reveal the structure of nonlinearity, provides implications for the relationship between continuity and discontinuity, order and disorder in technological change processes. To apply chaos theory to technological change, we used two mathematical tools, local Hurst exponent (LHE) and local Lyapunov exponent (LLE), to detect the long-term memory and chaotic patterns in printers. The results of this quantitative analysis were then used to guide our interpretative analysis of technological changes in printers. Findings show that chaos occurred in the periods from September 1988 to October 1992, and from April 2008 to November 2009. Paradigms or standards emerged after those chaotic periods, just like the fish would appear in the turbulence.