油價對石油進出口國國民生產毛額及匯率之影響研究

The Effects of the Oil Price on the GDP and Exchange Rates of Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

本本研究之研究期間為2009年第1季至2017年第4季，以Todaand Yamamoto（1995）之因果關係檢定加以探討油價對石油進出口國國民生產毛額及匯率之影響。根據國際能源署（IEA）2017年世界能源展望（World Energy Outlook 2017, WEO-2017）之全球石油統計資料，中國大陸（China）為全球第一大石油進口國，而沙烏地阿拉伯（Saudi Arabia）為2017年全球第一大石油出口國，但因沙烏地阿拉伯採釘住美元的匯率政策，故本研究改以浮動匯率之全球第二大石油出口國俄羅斯（Russian Federation）取代。經過嚴謹的實證過程，獲得以下的結論：OPEC原油價只有顯著領先中國及俄羅斯GDP一季正向變動。油價對於原油進口國（中國）GDP而言，並未如預期呈現負面影響，顯見油價上漲帶來溫和通膨，反而對於中國的經濟發展是有利的，但對於原油出口國（俄羅斯）GDP而言，則如預期呈現正面的影響。 The research period of this study is from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of2017. The effect of oil price on gross domestic product and exchange rate of oil importing andexporting countries is investigated using Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) causality test. Accordingto the 2017 World Energy Outlook of International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the world’slargest oil importer, and Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) is the world’s largest oil exporter in 2017.While the Saudi Arabia’s exchange rate is pegged to the US dollar, it will be replaced by Russian,the second largest exporter, with a floating exchange rate in this study. After a rigorousempirical process, the following conclusions are obtained:The OPEC crude oil price leads China and Russia’s GDP a quarter of positive changesignificantly. It is not expected that the oil price have a positive impact on the GDP for China.It is obvious that the rise in oil prices brings about moderate inflation, and it is beneficial toChina’s economic development. However, the crude oil price has a positive impact as expectedon the GDP for Russia.

The research period of this study is from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of2017. The effect of oil price on gross domestic product and exchange rate of oil importing andexporting countries is investigated using Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) causality test. Accordingto the 2017 World Energy Outlook of International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the world’slargest oil importer, and Saudi Arabia (Saudi Arabia) is the world’s largest oil exporter in 2017.While the Saudi Arabia’s exchange rate is pegged to the US dollar, it will be replaced by Russian,the second largest exporter, with a floating exchange rate in this study. After a rigorousempirical process, the following conclusions are obtained:The OPEC crude oil price leads China and Russia’s GDP a quarter of positive changesignificantly. It is not expected that the oil price have a positive impact on the GDP for China.It is obvious that the rise in oil prices brings about moderate inflation, and it is beneficial toChina’s economic development. However, the crude oil price has a positive impact as expectedon the GDP for Russia.