東亞新興民主國家政黨體系制度化的比較

Comparing Party System Institutionalization in East Asia's New Democracies

本文主要討論議題爲東亞新興民主國家民主化時機與政黨體系制度化之間的關係。多數政黨體系制度化研究者依循著Huntington的理論，且研究區域侷限在西歐民主國家，或東歐、拉美等新興民主化國家，只有少數研究著墨於東亞新興民主國家政黨體系制度化的問題。本文根據總體選舉資料與亞洲民主動態調査（Asian Barometer Survey，簡稱ABS）的調査資料，發現東亞新興民主國家的政黨體系逐漸趨於穩定，政黨存在時間也不斷拉長。但同時，東亞地區公民對政黨的信任卻很低，而且不認爲選舉能提供人民眞正的選擇。所以，即使政黨體系在菁英層次趨於穩定，但這樣的發展並沒有向下和選民建立更強的連結關係。因此政黨體系即使日益穩定，也只能被認爲是「部分制度化」。然而，如何解釋即使政黨和選民之間的連結薄弱，同時選舉結果的可預測性卻升高，且政黨體系趨於穩定？經由研究東亞五個新興民主國家的案例，本文主張東亞國家民主化的時機點，可以解釋爲何政黨和選民之間沒有發展高度的連結。此外，多數決選制的採用使得即便缺乏政黨與選民高度的連結，也能出現使政黨得票的變動呈現下降的現象。 This study explores the institutionalization of party systems in new democracies in East Asia and its relationship with late democratization. Following Samuel Huntington's work on institutionalization, there have been numerous studies on party and party system institutionalization. However, these studies have been largely focused on Western countries as well as emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Latin America; only a few studies have looked at party system institutionalization in East Asia. This study uses election data as well as survey data from the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) to explore party system institutionalization in the region's new democracies. The study finds that party systems in East Asia are increasingly stable and parties are surviving for longer. However, East Asians have low levels of trust in parties and do not believe that elections offer voters a genuine choice. In other words, although party systems in new democracies in the region are increasingly stable at the elite level, this development has not corresponded with a strengthening of links between parties and voters. Therefore, this study argues that the increasing stability of party systems in East Asia can only be described as ＂partial institutionalization.＂ How can we explain the increasing predictability of elections that is happening at the same time as the continued weakness of linkages between parties and voters? The five cases in this study suggest that late democratization can explain why parties have not developed strong linkages with voters. At the same time, the adoption of majoritarian electoral systems can explain declining electoral volatility despite the absence of strong party-voter linkages.

This study explores the institutionalization of party systems in new democracies in East Asia and its relationship with late democratization. Following Samuel Huntington's work on institutionalization, there have been numerous studies on party and party system institutionalization. However, these studies have been largely focused on Western countries as well as emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Latin America; only a few studies have looked at party system institutionalization in East Asia. This study uses election data as well as survey data from the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS) to explore party system institutionalization in the region's new democracies. The study finds that party systems in East Asia are increasingly stable and parties are surviving for longer. However, East Asians have low levels of trust in parties and do not believe that elections offer voters a genuine choice. In other words, although party systems in new democracies in the region are increasingly stable at the elite level, this development has not corresponded with a strengthening of links between parties and voters. Therefore, this study argues that the increasing stability of party systems in East Asia can only be described as ＂partial institutionalization.＂ How can we explain the increasing predictability of elections that is happening at the same time as the continued weakness of linkages between parties and voters? The five cases in this study suggest that late democratization can explain why parties have not developed strong linkages with voters. At the same time, the adoption of majoritarian electoral systems can explain declining electoral volatility despite the absence of strong party-voter linkages.