基于系统动力学的数字教育服务产业技术路线图研制

Study on Developing Technology Roadmap for Digital Education Service Industry Based on System Dynamics in China

Technology innovation is an effective approach to solve the problems about resource， technology， standards and others during the development of Digital Education Service (DES) industry in China. Considering the complexity and dynamics of technology innovation process for digital education service industry， this paper focuses on the method of technology innovation system based on system dynamics for digital education industry. Firstly， the reasons for studying technology roadmap of DES industry are illustrated in detail from industrial development， marketing demands and technology mutation. Secondly， traditional methods for developing technology roadmap are analyzed， and processes for developing technology roadmap of DES industry based on system dynamics are proposed. Thirdly， developing technology roadmap of DES industry are divided into four stages， including preparation， analysis， drawing and update. Fourthly， causal relationship of technology innovation for DES industry is established， and SD model of technology innovation for DES industry is also constructed. Then， the technology roadmap of DES industry is drawn， and mechanism for updating this technology roadmap is established. Finally， some suggestions for implementing this technology roadmap of DES industry are proposed.