台南縣國小學齡人口成長與學校分布之時空差異

The Temporal and Spatial Differences of the Growth of Elementary School-age Population and School Distribution in Tainan County

近來出生變化加以人口遷移，使得學齡人口成長與學校分布呈現顯著的時空差異，學校規模或縮減或擴大，形成強烈的區域對比，本研究以台南縣為例，探討國小學齡人口成長與學校分布的時空差異及其與地方特徵間的關係。首先以時間地圖呈現國小學校設立分布的時空差異，發現新設學校分布與人口成長趨勢一致，由原先集中分布於縣境西北平原轉變為集中分布於台南市外圍；其次以文獻歸納、GIS疊圖及SPSS逐步迴歸分析等方法，發現人口成長分布的時空差異除與自然環境、階段發展策略關係密切外，1970－1990年，出生、遷移均為影響人口成長空間差異的主要因素，第二級產業比例為最主要的解釋變數，1990－2007年，人口成長的空間差異受出生影響之程度大為降低，遷移之解釋力亦較上一階段低。本研究以地圖呈現國小教育資源在學生人數、每生校地、班級人數及生師比上分布不均的現象，結合統計分析推估未來6年（97－103學年）鄉鎮市別與校別國小學生人數的變化，並根據合適的學校經營規模進行校數調整，發現校數調整較多者分布於縣境西部沿海地帶與北部地區，在校別尺度上，宜裁併學校由主要位於縣境東南轉為主要位於縣境西北，宜另設新校者則主要分布於鄰近台南市與科學園區的永康、歸仁、新市、佳里等地區。

Fertility changes and urbanization make the temporal and spatial differences of school-age population growth and schools distribution. In Tainan County, some areas cut down small-scale schools, while some areas set up new schools. This study explored regional differences above mentioned and its relationship with characteristics of places in Tainan County. First, this study used time map to show the spatial-temporal distribution of schools and found that the distribution of new schools was in line with population growth trend, the original concentration on northwestern plains turned on outskirts of Tainan Metropolitan Area. Second, this study used literature review, GIS maps and SPSS statistical methods to analyze the relationship between the spatial-temporal distribution of population and the characteristics of places and found that the temporal and spatial differences of population growth related to natural environment and phased economic strategy. In addition, the spatial difference of population growth in 1970-1990 was closely related to both of fertility and migration, and the most important variables to explain the spatial difference of population growth in 1970-1990 is the proportion of industry, while fertility impact on the spatial difference of population growth in 1990-2007 had reduced greatly and explanatory capacity of migration also had decreased. Finally, this study analyzed inter-regional and intra-regional distribution of educational resources and found that the number of classes and class size showed uneven. Further, this study estimated the number of school-age population and classes in next six years, and made an adjustment in the number of schools in accordance with optimal scale to be the basis of dividing the boundary of school areas.