以真實儲蓄觀點衡量永續發展

Assessment of Sustainable Development: From the Perspective of Genuine Savings

真實儲蓄指標（Genuine Savings Index, GSI）係作為評估國家經濟永續發展之直接指標，負值的GSI顯示一國之經濟處於非永續發展狀態。相對於以傳統國家會計帳目來計算國家財富或收入之指標，GSI的定義較為擴充、創新、及有意義，其目的為計算呈現出對國家發展相當重要的整體資產之淨改變價值，而這些整體資產包含了製造資產、自然資源、環境品質、人力資源等要項。真實儲蓄指標的計算與分析同時具有政策上與方法上的意涵，本研究採用先前世界銀行（1997）所提出之真實儲蓄衡量模型，並以1970至2002年之英國與台灣為例證，來實證此模式對於永續發展量測之可行性與應用性。此外，本文亦對原真實儲蓄計算模型之方法論加以更新與修正補充，並提出其理由及說明。最後，研究結論為：於該計算期間內英國和台灣皆具有正值的真實儲蓄率，但亦顯示台灣的真實儲蓄率略高於英國。而這個結果與早先的其他相關研究之宣稱是一致的，亦即，多年來很多先進且資源豐富的國家呈現出緩慢成長或長期沒有改善的生活水準。但對於台灣與英國來說，建議其政府單位皆仍須採取行動，增加對可再生資本的投資，以補償其自然資源的耗損與實體資本的折舊，以儘可能提高兩國之真實儲蓄率。"

The genuine savings index ( GSI ) is a simple indicator that can be used to assess an economy’s sustainability: a negative GSI implies unsustainability. It defines wealth more broadly than orthodox national accounts, and recalculates national savings figures based on this new definition. Genuine savings aim to represent the value of the net change in the whole range of assets that are important for sustainable development: produced assets, natural resources, environmental quality, and human resources. This paper takes the broad framework developed in previous studies and tests its updated application with respect to the United Kingdom and Taiwan between 1970 and 2002, with the goal of assessing the feasibility of using such measures quite broadly as indices of sustainable development. The paper shows that both the United Kingdom and Taiwan have positive genuine savings rates over the period in question, with the United Kingdom registering lower ones than Taiwan. This result has been accordant with the prior research claims: many resource-rich countries have achieved slow or no long-term improvements in their standard of living. But in both cases, actions could be taken to increase investment in reproducible capital so as to offset the depletion of natural resources as well as the depreciation of physical capital.