總體缺電成本估計──CGE模型之應用

POWER OUTAGE COSTS ESTIMATION AT THE MACRO LEVEL: AN APPLICATION OF CGE MODEL

基於臺灣地區兩大政黨對「無核家園」政策之爭議逐漸縮小，再加上地區民眾對燃煤電廠排放的空氣汙染多所疑慮，可預見未來臺灣地區的電源開發工作將日益困難。此問題甚至引起外商和高科技電子產業的擔憂，認為自2017年後可能面臨限電的危機，將嚴重影響生產成本。一般而言，因供電系統的備用容量數降低，進而會發生缺電機率。民生及產業在缺電時都會受影響及發生損失，即所謂的缺電成本。跟據本文研究結果顯示，以發電端缺電機率（LOLP）實績值做為缺電成本政策模擬情境的下界，另以台灣電力公司需求面管理（DSM）實際契約作為缺電成本政策模擬情境的上界，估計總生產部門缺電成本約為新臺幣1.01元／度至4.01元／度（實質附加價值）。家計部門缺電成本乃從新臺幣0.09元／度至2.19元／度不等。缺電也將對實質GDP、就業率、消費、和進出口等總體經濟將產生負面的衝擊。

Due to the recent, rapid development of a “nuclear-free homeland” consensus, plus increasing air pollution from coal-fired power plants, maintaining the infrastructure of electricity supply is becoming more and more difficult in Taiwan. Foreign enterprises and local high-tech industries have expressed serious concerns about this issue. They have even projected that there will be power shortages after 2017, and the production costs due to uncertainty of power supply will increase dramatically. If power supply reliability decreases, it will heavily erode the spinning reserve of the power system and increase the probability of power shortages. Power users, including industrial users and residential users, will bear losses due to interruptions of electricity supply. The present study adopts a CGEmodel (EnFore-Green) to estimate power outage costs at the macro level in Taiwan. The average power outage costs are forecast to be about 1.01– 4.01 NT$/kWh for the production sector, and 0.09–2.19 NT$/kWh for household sector. The interruptions to electricity supply will also cause negative impacts to all macro level variables, such as real GDP, employment, consumption, and imports and exports.