應用迴歸分析預測道路工程之最低標價

Applying Regression Analysis to Forecast the Low Bid Price for Roadway Construction Projects

目前我國道路工程招標在最低標價決標機制及不景氣的環境下，營造廠商為求得標而造成低價搶標的情形極為嚴重。營造廠商若能妥善地應用先前之工程決標資訊，進而利用科學方法而能準確與合理地預測競標工程之可能最低標價，將可作為其擬定在可接受的最低標價下之競標策略，以及增加得標機率之重要依據。本研究蒐集82 個預算在五千萬元以下之道路工程案例，應用迴歸分析技術探討道路工程的業主預算、履約期限、押標金及最低標價間之關聯性，建立道路工程最低標價之預測模式，以協助業主與營造廠商能準確及有效地預測工程最低標價，進而研訂合理的投標策略。

Owing to the combined impact of the low bid letting system and difficulteconomic climate, contractors in Taiwan frequently propose relativelylow bid prices to increase their chance of winning construction projectbids. Contractors will have an edge if they can properly extract previousproject bidding information and apply scientific methods to forecast thepossible low bid price of construction projects with reasonable accuracy.Extracting bidding information about previous projects will help contractorsconsiderably, since the forecast results can provide the basis for con- tractors to establish their bidding strategies to provide a reasonable low bidprice, and thereby increase their chances of winning the bid. This studyexamined 82 roadway construction projects with budgets under 50 millionNT dollars. Regression analysis was applied to identify the relationshipbetween owner budget, contract duration, bond, and low bid price. A lowbid price forecast model of roadway construction was built to assist projectowners and contractors in predicting possible low bid prices and thus toestablish reasonable bidding strategies.