公路工程進度延誤之風險分析

Analysis of Risk of Delay of Highway Construction

由於公路工程施工中所存在的不確定性與影響因子眾多而不易掌握，故易造成工程進度延誤的發生。為有效地衡量造成公路進度延誤之因子與風險，本研究首先提出模糊層級分析法（Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process, FAHP）用以衡量各項因素對造成公路進度延誤發生之影響程度，再將之與失誤樹分析法（Fault Tree Analysis, FTA）相結合，用以分析公路工程進度發生延誤之因果關係及其風險值。最後，以公路總局九十年度進度延誤標案為例進行分析，其結果說明本模式之有效性與實用性，可作為協助公路進度管控與工期延誤風險評量的良好工具。

Due to numerous uncertainty factors contained within highway constructionprojects that can not be handled well, the schedule is oftendelayed. In order to effectively assess these factors and their associatedrisks, this paper presents a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process（FAHP）toquantify the degree of influence on project delay. Combining this proposedmodel and Fault Tree Analysis（FTA）, the cause-and-effect relation and therisk of construction delay can be analyzed. Finally, a case study based onhighway projects that were postponed in 2001 is presented to demonstratethe effectiveness and practicality of this model. The results indicate thatthis model can be used as a powerful tool for the scheduler to control projectschedules and evaluate risks of delay in highway construction.