躍過反傾銷稅直接投資與匯率波動——實質選擇權分析法

ANTIDUMPING JUMPING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

本文應用實質選擇權分析法，同時探討匯率波動性，反傾銷政策以及外人直接投資間之關係。本文研究結果顯示，在匯率波動情況下反傾銷政策有可能促使廠商進行躍過反傾銷稅直接投資，尤其是採取價格具結政策時更是如此。但若至第三國投資的固定成本較至提控國投資低很多，則躍過反傾銷稅直接投資將發生在第三國。此外，匯率不確定性的提高會產生更多躍過反傾銷稅直接投資。由此可知，匯率波動性，反傾銷政策以及外人直接投資間存在密切的連動關係。

This paper applies a real options approach to theoretically investigate the relationshipamong exchange rate volatility, antidumping policy and foreign direct investment. Ourresults indicate that under exchange rate uncertainty, antidumping policy might stimulatedumping firms to undertake foreign direct investment, especially if the filing country adoptsprice undertaking measures. However, if the fixed costs of foreign direct investment aremuch lower in a third country than those of the filing country, the dumping firms tend toundertake foreign direct investment in the third country instead. In addition, the higher theexchange rate uncertainty is, the more likely the foreign direct investment is to occur. Theseresults reveal the close interactive relationship among exchange rate volatility, antidumpingpolicy and foreign direct investment.