進口物價波動、資本累積與貿易條件動態

IMPORTED PRICE FLUCTUATION, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, AND TERMS-OF-TRADE DYNAMICS

本文旨在探討民眾預料到進口中間財和進口最終財之國際相對價格上漲，對於小型開放經濟貿易條件、資本累積、投資等相關總體變數的衝擊。我們建構一個包括中間財和最終財的兩部門模型，且將效率工資理論應用於中間財部門，從事動態一般均衡分析，據以研究變數的調整行為及其動態均衡的特質。結果指出：進口中間財國際相對價格上升，在長期將導致本國最終財和進口最終財的相對價格（即貿易條件）超比例的上升；而長期資本存量是曾獲檢，則取決於貿易彈性、中間財依賴度、生產要素替代彈性及密集度等參數而定。若貿易條件夠大，則民眾預料到進口中間財相對價格上漲即引發投資增加，並累積資本存量直到中間財相對價格實際上漲時；一旦相對價格實際上漲，投資是增或減，則取決於最終財生產對中間財依賴程度的高低而定。模型刻劃與量化分析的結果顯示：要素替代彈性對於進口中間財相對價格變動的效果頗為敏感。

This paper incorporates efficiency wages into an intermediate input sector, combining with the final good sector, to construct a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Under this framework, we examine the impact of an anticipated increase in the international price of an imported intermediate good and an imported final good on macroeconomic variables such as terms of trade, capital accumulation, and investment in a small open economy. We further investigate the steady state and dynamic behavior of relevant macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that: (1) an increase in the international price of an imported intermediate good, in the long run, will lead to a more than proportional increase in the relative price of a domestic final good in terms of an imported final good (i.e., the terms of trade); and (2) trade elasticity, substitution and intensity among production factors, as well as dependence of final production on the intermediate good, all determine whether the long-run capital stock will increase or decrease. If trade elasticity is large enough, then people increase their investment due to an anticipated increase in the relative price of the imported intermediate good. Once the relative price of the imported intermediate good actually rises, whether investment increases depends on the degree to which final-good production is dependent on the intermediate good. Some calibrations for the parameters of our model, and the quantitative analysis highlights the sensitivity of the effect of anticipated changes in the prices of intermediary imports and final goods imports on elasticities of factor substitutability.