國外貨幣擴張下的政策反應與福利分析──動態隨機一般均衡模型的量化分析

Welfare Implications of Policy Responses to Foreign Monetary Expansion: Quantitative Assessment with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

本研究建構一個國家規模不對稱的兩國隨機動態一般均衡模型（大國與小國），利用模擬校對來對大國的貨幣擴張對於小國的影響進行量化研究，並據以對小國所採取的政策反應進行福利分析。模擬校對的結果顯示，此衝擊的大小與國家規模以及匯率轉嫁的程度有關。政策的福利分析結果亦顯示，當兩國國家規模大小差異越大時，整體的福利水準越小。而當國際貿易的商品價格會受到匯率轉嫁的影響時，小國若對大國的貨幣擴張所可能造成的貨幣升值進行干預以穩定幣值，可以減少其福利損失。

This study calibrates a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate numerically the impacts of monetary expansion in one, large country on a small country, and the optimal policy response. The calibration results demonstrate that the impacts vary with country size and the degree of exchange rate pass-through. The welfare examination shows that the overall welfare level under one country’s monetary expansion can be smaller if the country sizes are more divergent. While the trades are subject to the exchange rate pass-through, the exchange rate management of the small country in response to the foreign monetary expansion in the large country can lower the welfare loss.