英文摘要 |
This paper points out that inflation forecasts should also take into account global factors. The Fisher hypothesis indicates that long-term interest rates contain information on future inflation information. We extract global factors and common components from long-term interest rates in 21 OECD countries and then apply an error-correction model to predict inflation rates. Our empirical results reveal that (1) the common component is helpful to improve the predictability on inflation rates, (2) the interest rates of leading country reflects the information of global inflation and hence are helpful to enhance the accuracy of inflation rate forecasts. |