匯率與市場取價──台灣人造纖維梭織布出口實證

EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICING TO MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN’S EXPORTS OF WOVEN FABRIC OF SYNTHETIC FIBER

本文在實證上檢視台灣人造纖維梭織布針對美國、中國、香港、印尼及越南等五大出口目的國的市場取價（pricing to market）行為，以及該產業在國際市場面臨的競爭程度。市場取價行為乃出口商面對匯率變動時，依據不同出口目的國的需求與競爭情形，採取不同幅度的成本加成調整比例。然由於匯率變動也同時影響廠商的生產成本，如何區隔匯率對成本的影響，也就成為市場取價實證研究上必須控制的變數。本文利用了紡織業上、中、下游定位清楚，且成本來源相對單純的特性，而得以更精確地掌握成本變數。這使我們得以克服過去如Knetter（1995）以時間虛擬變數取代成本資料，而無法檢驗理論的重要實證意涵的問題。我們發現，台灣人造纖維梭織布的出口，存在顯著的市場取價行為。尤其利用2005年紡織品配額制度取消的政策改變，我們發現在配額取消後，我們針對美國與印尼的出口，確實面臨更嚴峻競爭狀況，而必須更大幅度的在匯率變動時調整其成本加成幅度。

This study empirically investigates the pricing to market behavior of Taiwan’s woven fabric of synthetic fiber exports to 5 major foreign markets, including the U.S., China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Pricing to market refers to adjustment of exporter’s markup to exchange rate movements, thus depending on degree of competition facing exporters in any particular market. Nevertheless, change in exchange rates also induces change in marginal cost of production. The novelty of our paper lies in an ability to differentiate the effect of change in exchange rates on the markup adjustment from that on the marginal cost, by making use of the simple cost structure in the textile industry. Without applying time dummies as proxies for cost as in Knetter (1995), the empirical validity of the restrictions on parameters implied by theory can now be formally tested. We find significant evidence for the pricing to market behavior of Taiwan’s exports of woven fabric of synthetic fiber. Of more interest is the finding that producers adjust their markups to a greater extent for exports to the U.S. and Indonesia in the absence of quota protections, suggesting higher competition.