資產泡沫形成、破滅關係之研究

The Formation and Crash of Assets Bubbles

本研究嘗試將行為財務所發現的投資人正向回饋心理與私房錢效果融入理論模型，建構一個可以合理詮釋金融資產泡沫形成與破滅的理論。研究結果發現，泡沫的形成起源，投資人追逐趨勢的正向回饋心理，而泡沫的破滅則是與投資人私房錢效果的心態具有關聯性，模型證明若無私房錢效果的心理融入，則資產的泡沫破滅不明顯或不存在。本文所建構私房錢效果泡沫模型，對於大型泡沫事件皆能提供良好詮釋與適用性。本研究能夠詮釋資產泡沫的過程，對於不同投資人的投資行為描述，可作為市場參與者投資決策的參考依據。

In this paper, we construct a theory to reasonably explain the formation and crashof assets bubbles under the situation when investors own the psychology of positivefeedback and house money effect. The results of this study show that bubblesformation is caused by positive feedback trading behavior of those investors who arein search of trend, and the bubbles crash is related to house money effect of investors.The model we constructed can perfectly interpret the formation and the crash of assetsbubbles. So, the description of the behavior of investors in this paper can be treated asa good reference for market participants when they are making investment decisions.