臺灣之進出口與臺灣接單海外生產對製造業表現的影響－－地區別貿易效果之比較

The Effects of Trade and Overseas Production of Taiwan’s Export Orders on the Performance of Taiwan’s Manufacturing Industries: A Comparison between Trade with Different Regions

本研究利用 2006 年及 2011 年行政院主計總處工商普查與海關進出口統計資料，分析臺灣對中國大陸與香港、對中國大陸與香港以外的地區（簡稱其他地區）進出口、以及臺灣接單海外生產對製造業表現的影響。實證結果顯示，出口至中國大陸與香港年成長率每增加 1%，就業年成長率增加 0.07%，但其對場所數與平均實質薪資則無顯著影響。出口至其他地區年成長率每增加 1%，就業年成長率增加 0.14%。以絕對量而言，在 2006 年至 2011 年間，出口至中國大陸與香港每年可帶動 4,801 個就業人數的增加，出口至其他地區則為 9,951 人，合計可解釋 89% 就業人數年增量。再者，出口至其他地區年成長率每增加 1%，場所數之年成長率提高 0.13%；此出口每年帶動 368 個場所數增加，占實際總增量的 41%。臺灣出口至中國大陸與香港相對於出口至其他地區之就業與場所數創造效果較小，顯示與貿易對手之間的要素移動性高低會影響貿易帶動效果的大小。在進口部分，則不論自何地進口，對就業、場所數與平均實質薪資之影響均不顯著。臺灣接單海外生產之當期效果顯示，其年成長率每增加 1%，平均實質薪資之年成長率微幅增加 0.012%。臺灣接單海外生產之長期累積效果則為，以中國為生產基地的臺灣接單海外生產金額相對於該產業出口值比率上升時，該產業在臺灣場所數相對減少，不利創新。

This paper uses Taiwan’s Industry, Commerce and Service Censuses of 2006 and 2011 and trade statistics to analyze the impact of cross-strait trade, its trade with regions other than mainland China and Hong Kong (other regions hereinafter), and overseas production of Taiwan’s export orders (OPEO) on the performance of the country’s four-digit manufacturing industries. The empirical findings are that a one percentage point increase in exports to China (including mainland China and Hong Kong) and other regions raises employment across industries by 0.07 and 0.14 percentage points, respectively. The estimate suggests annual employment increases of 4,801 and 9,951 workers stemming from the growth in exports to China and other regions over the period 2006-2011, respectively, accounting for 89% of the actual annual total increment in employment. Furthermore, a one percentage point increase in exports to other regions results in a 0.13 percentage point rise in the number of establishment units. The growth in exports to other regions prompts an increase in the number of establishment units by 368, accounting for 41% of actual annual incremental growth. However, Taiwan’s exports to China have no significant effect on the increases in the number of establishment units and Taiwan’s imports from China incur no significant changes in employment, the number of establishments and real wages in Taiwan. The larger creation in Taiwan’s employment and establishments brought about by exports to other regions than that to China suggests that the relative importance of trade-induced effects are subject to factor mobility between trade partners. Additionally, although a one percentage point increase in OPEO leads to a slight 0.012 percentage points increase annually in average real wages during the same period, the long-run accumulated effect of overseas production is negative, i.e., an increased ratio of overseas production in mainland China to an industry’s exports results in a decrease in the number of establishments in Taiwan.