臺北市公共住宅對周圍住宅價格之影響

Impact of Public Housing on Nearby Residential Property Values in Taipei City

近年臺北市政府試圖藉由興建公共住宅，解決住宅價格高漲影響人民居住問題，然附近居民往往認為公共住宅會造成周圍住宅生活環境品質低落及價格下跌，反對其於住家鄰近興建。過去國內缺乏以實證方式計算公共住宅對周圍住宅價格之影響；而國外相關研究雖有利用量化實證公共住宅與周圍房價關係，然多針對個別公共住宅社區為研究對象，對不同類型公共住宅及其對不同高低房價住宅之影響與差異，缺乏更全面的探討分析。本文應用特徵價格理論傳統迴歸模型、空間迴歸模型及分量迴歸模型，並以2012年7月至2015年9月之不動產實價登錄交易資料進行實證分析，研究整建住宅、出售國宅、出租國宅、公營出租住宅等四類不同時期公共住宅，於100~300公尺不同影響範圍下，分別對周圍住宅價格的影響效果。實證結果顯示，附近有早期興建之整建住宅及出租國宅者，其住宅總價皆呈現顯著下跌現象，分別下跌約1.7%至8.9%及1.5%至7.7%；附近有出售國宅之住宅總價漲跌情形不顯著；而近期興建之公營出租住宅則造成周圍住宅價格顯著上漲約1.7%至7.7%；又前述影響程度皆隨影響範圍擴大而隨之減輕。進一步分析不同影響範圍下對其周圍高低總價住宅的影響，公營出租住宅對周圍低價住宅正向提升效果為6.2%至7.1%，皆大於高價住宅之無顯著影響至3.2%。由新推出的公營出租住宅對周圍房價造成正面影響的實證結果，應可釐清公共住宅外部性之正向效果，有助後續公共住宅的興建。

In recent years, the Taiwan government has built public housing to solve problems caused by soaring house prices. However, public housing is limited by the NIMBY effect. Nearby residents believe that public housing will detrimentally affect property values and oppose public housing to be built nearby. There were short of empirical studies that focus on the effects of public housing on nearby property in Taiwan. Besides, empirical studies in other countries have only focused on specific public housing projects. Few have compared different effects caused by different types of public housing, and ignore different effects on nearby property with different values. To analyze the effect of resettled tenements, public housing for rent and for sale as well as social housing in different ranges on nearby property values, this study used hedonic price theory OLS, spatial and quantile regression as model, and selected the sale price of real estate in Taipei City from July 2012 to September 2015 as sample. The regression modeling results showed that, although resettled tenement and public housing for rent detrimentally affect the property values by 1.7% to 8.9% and 1.5% to 7.7% separately, public housing for sale does not affect the property values significantly, and social housing positively affects the property values by 1.7% to 7.7% on the contrary. In addition, these effects decline with distance from public housing. Analyses of effects on high and low priced property in different ranges showed that social housing positively affects low-priced property by 6.2% to 7.1% and no significant effect to 3.2% on high-priced property. Therefore, recently built social housing is not expected to have a detrimental effect on nearby property values. Empirical results showed that newly built social housing enhances nearby property values, which then contribute to the follow-up construction of the public housing.