台北都會區基礎與非基礎就業關係的探討：共整合分析的應用

THE STUDY OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BASIC EMPLOYMENT AND NONBASIC EMPLOYMENT IN THE GREATER TAIPEI METROPOLITAN AREA: AN APPLICATION OF COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

經濟基礎分析是研究都會區就業成長的重要理論之一，但傳統的研究大多停留在靜態研究，繼而利用時間數列作更進一步的研究，卻產生經濟基礎分析究竟是短期或是長期模型的爭論。本文利用台北都會區的資料，使用共整合分析來作動態研究。結果發現，台北都會區的經濟基礎分析應是一長期均衡模型，其總基礎乘數是18.69。本文更進一步以產業別來估計產業基礎就業與總非基礎就業的關係，結果仍傾向台北都會區的經濟基礎分析是一長期均衡模型，且以金融保險業的基礎就業對都會區的發展最為重要，其基礎就業乘數高達40.06，其次是其他服務業，台北都會區應積極鼓勵這些基礎就業的進駐，以促進台北都會區就業的成長。

Economic base analysis is one of the most important theories for the study of regional economic growth. This paper applies cointegration and error-correction model to examine the debates by estimating dynamically short-run and long-run multipliers between basic empolyment and nonbasic employment. The different basic multipliers are estimated. For the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area by including intersectoral linkages, we find that economic basic analysis is a long-run equilibrium theory and its total basic multiplier is 18.69. Under interindustrial multipliers model, development of metropolitan employment will be significantly affected by all basic industries. Among these basic industries, finance and insurance is the biggest source of this area growth and its multiplier is up to 40.06. Thus, metropolitan authorities should develop and attract basic industries, especially in finance and insurance.