阿隆索之體系模式：回顧、評析、與一再現體系之建議

A CRTICAL REVIEW OF ALONSO'S SYSTEMIC MODEL AND A PROPOSAL OF A REPRESENTATION SYSTEM

文本首先介紹阿隆索Alonso遺留而迄今在學界尚無結論之一著名模式，然後回顧過去對此模式各種研究之努力，包括各種實証方式及結果，及諸爭論中之主要問題。再評論其中根本瓶頸，特別指出其「認定不足」（under identified）關鍵問題。本文最後提議一再現（representation）體系以作阿氏模式之代理（proxy），顯示如何決定一項額外資訊而將模式內全部內生未知數解析出來。不僅保留原阿氏模式中之詮釋與旨意，並轉化為一可操作之模式，且更進一步亦可作預測之用。文內以數例（包括一組台灣之遷徙資料）闡明其數解結果及意義。最後提出尚待進一步研究之課題。

The development of W. Alonso's systemic model is reported. The various empirical attempts of estimating the model and the issues and difficulties of interpreting the model are reviewed. It is argued that the central problem is that the model is under-identified. A representation system is proposed as a proxy of the original systemic model. It purports to convert a set of observed data, not necessarily limited to spatial interaction data, to meaningful information in Alonso's terms. With one piece of added information, especially on the basis of a 'total gravity model,' the representation system is exactly identified. By virtue of internal consistency, the system can also be used for prediction. Numerical examples are given to illustrating the operation and interpretations.