台灣地區城際旅運需求模式之研究

AN INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL IN TAIWAN AREA

過去在從事運輸需求的研究時，常以都會區的需求模式應用於城際間，但由於城際旅次和都會區內旅次的旅次的發生特性差異很大，故以都會區模式來描述此一現象，不甚合理，本研究應用IPTD model於台灣地區，並逐次修正，且在模式中放入都市地區虛擬變數及旅行時間門檻虛擬變數，模式以非線性方法校估；另外本研究依直接需求模式的架構，校估台灣地區旅次產生及分佈模式，並和本研究修正IPTD model作比較。

There are many major transportation development projects under planning and construction in Taiwan. Transportation systems will be facing a dramatic change in the future. However, the conventional travel demand analysis fails to give adequate consideration to such change. The aim of this paper is to develop a model which shows how intercity trip generation and distribution are affected by reducing travel time between cities. The model based on Interprovincial Trip Distribution (IPTD) model. The parame-ters in the model are calibrated by nonlinear approach. Two dummy variables, urban hierarchy and travel time thre-shold, are found to play key role in long distance travel decisions. In addition, the research compares the results of IPTD model and conventional model. The comparisons involve cali-bration of the direct demand model using same set of varia-bles but different model structure.