企業創新特質、財務預測與盈餘管理之關聯

The Relationships among Innovation Characteristics, Financial Forecast and Earnings Management

本文探討我國企業創新投資、財務預測與盈餘管理之關係。研發投資過程有三種不確定性：技術不確定性、商業不確定性、經濟不確定性，因此，企業之盈餘預測誤差可能較大。當盈餘預測之實際數與預測數差異過高時，企業必需負擔商譽損失與行政處罰。因此，企業可能作預測更新或盈餘管理以降低預測誤差。本文即是檢驗高研發廠商之營運不確定與預測誤差之情形，並測試作第二次預測修正及期後預測修正之企業，其盈餘管理之可能情形如何。本文以我國上市櫃公司為測試樣本，研究發現有：第一、高研發創新之公司，營收與營業活動現金流量之變異性較高。第二、高研發創新之公司，初次盈餘預測誤差率較高，預測之更新次數較多，盈餘管理程度亦較高。第三、高研發創新者，以及初次盈餘預測誤差率較高者，盈餘管理程度較高；而作第二次盈餘預測更新者、期後期間作盈餘預測更新者，以及預測更新次數較多者，盈餘管理程度較低。

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationships among R&D investment;financial forecast; and earnings management in Taiwan. Regarding the R&Dinvestment, there are three kinds of uncertainties: technical uncertainty; commercialuncertainty; and economic uncertainty. The uncertainties influence the accuracy offinancial forecast. When there is substantial difference between the actual earningsand earnings forecast, the reputation of firm would be impaired as well as theadministrative penalty would be imposed. Under this circumstance, the firms mightperform the financial forecast renewal or earning management to mitigate the forecasterrors. Our paper is to examine the relationship between the uncertainties of thehigh R&D industries and their financial forecast errors. We evaluate the earningsmanagement of the high R&D firms undertook a second financial forecast renewaland post-fiscal period financial forecast renewal. The target samples are the Taiwaneselisted firms with financial data. Our empirical study results indicate: 1). that highR&D firms demonstrate higher volatility in terms of revenue and cash flow from theoperating activities; 2). the volatility increases the probability of initial errors in theearnings forecasts, the frequency of the revised financial forecasts along with higherearnings management; and 3). the high R&D firms with more initial errors in theearnings forecasts also presented higher earnings management. However, the firmsconducted a second financial forecast renewal, post-fiscal period financial forecastrenewal, and more than two financial forecast renewals, exhibited lower earningsmanagement.