預算體制與政府跨期財政行為－－台灣的實證研究

BUDGETARY INSTITUTIONS AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

本文利用預算體制相關規範以及財政長期平衡條件導出「財政赤字」現值模型：「財政赤字」等於未來政府財政努力程度的現值，並證明「財政赤字」現值模型成立的充要條件。實證結果顯示1968～2004年 期間台灣中央政府跨期財政行為支持「財政赤字」現值模型。雖然《公共債務法》對政府向外舉借予未償還債務餘額均有限制，但因果關係檢定結果顯示，中央政府仍依「量出為入」原則編製預算。

In this paper, we find that procedural rules and limits on deficit financing in budgetary institutions provide a crucial econometric restriction on the intertemporal budget constraint of government. Without properly considering the budgetary institutions, the imtertemporal budget constraint implies a stochastic singularity among fiscal variables and therefore cannot be tested. Empirical results support both fiscal sustainability and the importance of budgetary institutions using Taiwan central government budget data from 1968 to 2004. Despite the legal limits on deficit financing, the data favor the spend-and-tax hypothesis.