從R&D 看臺灣經濟發展瓶頸

THE BOTTLENECK OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TAIWAN: FROMTHE R&D POINT OF VIEW

十多年來， 臺灣之實質工資幾無增加， 這呈現了經濟成長動力漸失， 尤其以正確的資料， Solow 的計量方法C-D （Cobb-Douglas） 函數分析所得的成長趨勢， 便是如此。不過Solow 計量分析， 方法論上低估R&D 對經濟成長之貢獻， 本文再以C-D 函數出發， 進一步做理論的推導， 可求得臺灣總體經濟之資本需求與勞動需求曲線，當技術進步時，資本投資、資本報酬、工資及就業將增加，同時出口之競爭力也將提升。因此推升消費、投資與出口。從此即可了解R&D為經濟成長之原動力的真諦。若再配合產業關聯理論，發現R&D有高度的外溢效果，它是一種軟體的公共投資。若能與硬體的公共投資， 直接生產設備投資有好的配合， 經濟將走向最佳的成長線。

The real wage in Taiwan has not increased for more than ten years. This indicates the economy had lost its growthmomentum. For the empirical study, we use the Solow Model, which however tends to underestimate the contribution of R&Dto economic growth. Thereforewe extend the theoretical analysis to derive the capital and labor demand curves of Taiwan. Increase in R&D inputs will lead to a rise in capital investments, capital returns,wage, and employment. Improvement in export competitiveness can be an indirect result as well. Consequently, it can raise consumption, investment, and export. To sum up, R&D is themain driving force of economic growth. Using input-output analysis,we found that R&D has a high spillover effect. Adequate combination of R&D inputs and infrastructure investment can push the economic growth towards the optimal path.