土地增值稅長短期稅率對土地交易的影響：以自用住宅為例

THE PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY EFFECTS OF LAND VALUE INCREMENT TAXESON LAND TRADING: THE CASE OF SELF-USED RESIDENTIAL LAND

本研究區分長短期有效稅率後的分析顯示， 短期有效稅率的估計係數比長期有效稅率的估計係數更大且更顯著。此一結果意謂土地增值稅的調整對人均自用住宅土地交易增值金額、土地交易筆數和土地交易面積的影響， 主要反應在稅率的短期變動上。短期政策效果大於長期政策效果的現象， 符合過去相關研究的看法： 納稅人面對短期稅率變動， 會傾向進行跨期租稅套利，因此對於當下政策變動反應大； 但面對長期租稅政策變動， 因不急需在短期內交易， 所以對於長期政策變動的反應較小。因此， 評估土地增值稅對土地交易及稅收的影響時， 有必要區分長短期稅率的影響。由於本研究僅分析自用住宅， 其結論是否適用全部土地交易， 有待未來進一步探討。

We find that the transitory tax effect is larger andmore statistically significant than the permanent tax effect when we distinguish between these two effects in the empirical specification. Our results are consistent with the estimates fromprevious studies on the tax effects on capital gains realization, and suggest that taxpayers aremore responsive to transitory tax changes than to permanent tax changes. Taxpayers are more responsive to transitory tax changes because transitory tax changes create opportunities for tax arbitrage by means of time shifting. Therefore, policy evaluations based on conventional estimateswithout distinguishing between the permanent effect and the transitory effect may be misleading. Nevertheless, we may need further analyses to clarify whether or not our results are applicable to all land trading, since this study is based only on self-used residential land.