ECFA 對我國勞動市場與所得分配的經濟影響評估

AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS ON TAIWAN’S LABOR MARKET AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF TAIWAN-CHINA ECONOMIC COOPERATION FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT (ECFA)

本文採用多國與單國可計算一般均衡（CGE） 模型， 並編製社會會計矩陣（Social Accounting Matrix） 資料庫， 針對「東協加中國、東協加日本、東協加韓國」區域貿易協定成形下，兩岸推動ECFA架構協議所造成的經濟、勞動需求及所得分配的影響進行分析。研究結果顯示， 實施ECFA 「早期收穫計畫」（Early Harvest Program）， 臺灣總體勞動需求人數可望增加3 萬3 千人（增0.319%）； 依據ECFA 推動工業產品全面貿易自由化， 總體勞動需求人數則將增加11 萬9 千人（增1.214%）。兩岸貿易自由化最大受益者為最高所得群組的家庭，吉尼係數將隨著市場開放程度擴大而提高，顯示前揭貿易自由化將會造成臺灣所得分配不均的情況愈形惡化。

This study uses both the multi-regional and single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE)models and the social accounting matrix (SAM) database to provide an economy-wide analysis of the impacts of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) on Taiwan’s labor demand and income distribution, under the formation of the “ASEAN plus China, ASEAN plus Japan, ASEAN plus Republic of Korea” regional trade agreements (RTAs). Simulation results show that, if the ECFA “Early Harvest Program” is implemented, the amount of overall labor demand is expected to increase by 33,000 jobs (+0.319%); if a comprehensive trade liberalization of industrial products according to ECFA is put into force, the overall labor demand will increase by 119,000 jobs (+1.214%). Overall, ECFA will benefit all levels of household income. However, the biggest beneficiaries of cross-strait trade liberalization are the highest income group families. The Gini’s coefficient increases with the greater market openness, indicating that the trade liberalization will worsen the economic inequality problem in Taiwan.