解析臺灣戰後的第一次經濟負成長

Accounting for Taiwan’s First Post-War Negative Economic Growth

本文應用景氣循環會計方法來分析臺灣在2001年所經歷的經濟負成長。這是臺灣在第二次世界大戰之後， 所經歷的第一次經濟負成長。我們發現勞動（同期選擇） 摩擦是導致2001年產出與勞動投入下跌的主要因素。反應國外需求衝擊的淨出口摩擦， 則是導致投資下跌的主要因素。既有的文獻曾經指出國外需求衝擊的影響， 但是卻未曾注意到勞動（同期選擇） 摩擦的重要性。即便在考慮不同的生產函數設定與投資調整成本之後， 我們的主要結果還是相當穩健。我們更進一步證實， 營運資金的限制是產生勞動（同期選擇）摩擦的最可能因素。

We apply the method of business cycle accounting to Taiwan’s first postwar negative economic growth in 2001. We find that labor (intra-temporal) wedge was the most important factor causing the declines in output and in labor input. Net exports wedge, which represents foreign demand shock, was themost important factor causing the declines in investment. While the foreign demand shock has received attention in the literature, the importance of labor (intra-temporal)wedge to the 2001 recession is newto the literature. These findings are robust to the specification of the technology of the prototype model and the investment adjustment costs. Furthermore, we show that the presence of working capital constraint is the most plausible friction that has generated the observed labor (intra-temporal)wedge.