臺灣信用管道之探討

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CREDIT CHANNELS IN TAIWAN

本文將貨幣政策對經濟體系所可能的影響管道融入總體計量模型中， 藉以分析信用管道在我國經濟體系中所扮演的角色。實證結果顯示， 當央行調整準備貨幣時， 會影響銀行放款， 進而對民間投資產生衝擊， 此顯示狹義信用管道存在於我國經濟體系中。此外， 當央行調整隔夜拆款利率時， 股票市場與房地產市場皆會受到影響，銀行放款也隨著資產市場的變動而調整其額度，進一步影響國內需求。此結果反映廣義信用管道在我國經濟體系亦扮演相當顯著的角色。而準備貨幣的改變雖然對銀行放款以及實質經濟之影響較為即時，但其對資產市場影響較不顯著， 且對實質經濟的衝擊效果期間較短。

This paper incorporates the impacts of monetary policy on the economy in a macro-econometricmodel to analyze the role of the credit channel in Taiwan’s economy. The empirical results show that an adjustment in reserve money by the central bank influences bank loans; moreover, it has an impact on private investment. This implies that the narrow credit channel exists in Taiwan’seconomy. In addition, an adjustment of the interbank rate influences the stock market and housing market via an adjustment of bank loans; and further, it affects domestic demand. The results show that the broad credit channel also exists in Taiwan’s economy. Though the adjustment of reserve money has an immediate impact on bank loans and the real economy, it has no significant influences on asset markets, and has an effect on the real economy only in a short-term period.