油價高漲下油價政策對總體經濟及政府財政影響之模擬分析

THE SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF HIGH OIL PRICE ON THE ECONOMY AND GOVERNMENT BUDGET

本研究以總體經濟計量季模型模擬分析國際原油價格長期上升對臺灣總體經濟與政府財政的影響。研究設定國際油價比基準預測高出10 美元， 國內油價上漲8 美元的前提下， 若從政府財政負擔分析， 自由市場將優於完全管制， 更優於完全補貼； 若從實質國內生產毛額的變動分析， 完全補貼會優於完全管制及自由市場。油價政策會因不同的比較基礎得出不同的結論。

The study applies a quarterly macroeconometric model to conduct a simulation analysis of the impact of international oil price hikes on Taiwan’s aggregate economy and government budget. When the international oil price is set ten US dollars higher than the baseline forecast and the domestic oil price increases eight US dollars, the simulation result shows that the free market is better than a fully regulated one and is much better than a fully subsidized one in terms of the government budget; the full subsidy is better than full regulation and free market in terms of GDP. Therefore the oil price measures could result from different policy targets.