臺灣勞保年金制度的總體經濟計量分析

A MACRO-ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE LABOR RETIREMENT PENSION SYSTEM OF TAIWAN

2009年臺灣正式邁入全民年金時代，其中以勞保年金制度的施行最具劃時代的意義。勞保年金制度的實施， 攸關八百餘萬勞工的福祉， 並將牽動政府財政， 對經濟及社會的衝擊十分複雜， 本研究使用臺灣總體經濟計量模型， 進行不同情境的分析， 提出建言， 供政府推動臺灣勞保年金制度興革的參考。情境的分析分為勞保年金收入大於支出， 收入小於支出， 及收支平衡三種可能情境， 算出其對實質國內生產毛額（GDP）、實質民間消費支出、實質民間固定資本形成毛額等八項主要總體經濟變數的效果。本研究發現勞工權益的增加， 可能會帶給企業經營成本上升， 投資意願及出口競爭力的下降， 失業率及通膨率會上升， 政府財政負荷變大， · · · 。本研究的第四種情境， 依臺灣65 歲以上人口年齡層死亡率，推估年齡層領退休金人口，設定薪資上升趨勢及保費調整幅度， 據以推算勞保年金長期財務變化， 代入總體經濟計量模型， 發現實施勞保年金制度後，由於生存的退休勞工人數逐年擴大，勞保局每年付給勞工的退休年金漸會超越所收到之勞保年金保費， 此外， 實施勞保年金制度後， 民間消費會有改善， 惟民間投資、生產面的實質國內生產毛額、失業率及通膨率都將比基準解惡化。

This paper aims to predict the macro-economic effects of the labor retirement pension system which has been implemented from 2009. A macro-econometric model is applied to three different scenarios: the pension revenues will exceed, be equal to or be less than the pension expenditures. Based on these scenarios, we predict the implementation of labor retirement pension system will increase the cost of production and decrease the investment of the private sector and export competitiveness. We also predict that the unemployment rate and the inflation rate will increase, and the fiscal situation will become worse. In addition to these scenario analyses, we also forecast the number of retirees, based on the assumed death rate ofworkers aged more than 65. The forecasted number of retirees and an assumed wage increase rate and assumed pension rate are used to predict the financial situation of the labor retirement pension system in the long run. The results showthat the expenditure of the pension will finally exceed the pension revenue, due to the increased number of retirees. Finally, by putting all these data into the macro-econometric model, we predict a positive effect on private consumption expenditures and negative effects on private investments, gross domestic production, employment and inflation.