能源稅對臺灣能源需求及經濟之影響

THE EFFECT OF ENERGY TAX ON ENERGY DEMAND AND THE ECONOMY OF TAIWAN

本文的目的在於根據臺灣動態一般均衡模型（DGEMT） 評估能源稅及其減稅配套方案對產業及整體物價、經濟成長、能源需求及CO2 排放之影響。最後並提出政策建議，以供政府修訂能源稅及相關配套政策的參考。政策模擬模型為DGEMT 或Liang and Jorgenson （2003） 模型。本文的主要結論及建議如下： 課徵能源稅並實施減稅配套對CO2 的減量及節能有顯著成效， 對經濟的影響則相對輕微， 且有助於改善產業結構。課徵能源稅及其減稅配套措施至2018 年CO2 及空氣污染減排之總社會效益為1，517.1 億元。將社會效益減掉經濟成長降低所造成的社會成本1，155.6 億元， 尚得社會淨效益達361.5 億元。因此課徵能源稅並採減稅配套屬經濟可行， 值得政府採行。能源稅若能落實按能源的含碳量課徵（即課徵碳稅）， 則能源稅的CO2 減量效果會更佳， 對經濟的影響會更低， 經濟可行性也將更高。

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of an energy tax with tax reform on the price, output growth, energy demand and CO2 emission by sector and for the economy as a whole. The findings will be useful for policy making. The simulationmodel employed is a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Taiwan (DGEMT) or Liang and Jorgensen (2003) Model. The major findings of this paper are as follows: (1) To implement an energy tax with tax reform will result in a significant improvement in CO2 reduction and industrial restructuring, while it has a moderately negative impact on inflation and economic growth. (2) The benefit of imposing an energy tax in terms of the reduction of CO2 andair pollution is estimated at NT $151.71 billion in 2018. Compared with the loss of GDP (NT $115.56 billion), the net benefit of imposing an energy tax amounts to NT $36.15 billion in 2018. Consequently, we conclude that to implement an energy tax with tax reform is economically feasible, and hence it isworthy adoption by the government. It is also suggested that the energy tax should be levied according to energy carbon content (i.e. carbon tax) to enhance its effect on CO2 reduction and to moderate its negative impact on the economy.