銅版紙課徵反傾銷稅經濟效果與國家整體利益分析

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF IMPOSING ANTI-DUMPING DUTIES AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC INTERESTSOF THE ART PAPER INDUSTRY

本文運用美國國際貿易委員會所發展的商業政策分析系統（COMPAS）模型， 分析我國銅版紙產業在課徵傾銷稅後對該產業本身以及上下游產業所造成之影響與經濟福利變化， 分析結果能提供業者擬訂績效改善策略與政府相關部門在採行保護措施制定績效目標之參考。實證分析結果發現反傾銷稅課徵後之重分配效果僅次於國際收支效果， 即生產者因課徵反傾銷稅將從消費者福利中獲得較大利益。其次， 因傾銷稅課徵降低進口該產品之價格上升與市場佔有率下降， 造成本國同類產品生產之增加， 對上游產業具有正面影響， 但對下游產業則有負面的影響。鑒於我國迄今尚無因國家利益考量而不課徵反傾銷稅之案例， 建議未來改善之道可以考慮透過立法程序， 訂定較少課徵原則，同時要求調查機關在認定造成足夠重大影響之考量要件時， 必須加上對國家整體利益及上下游產業的影響評估， 以求取反傾銷稅課徵能在國內產業及整體利益之間取得平衡點， 爭取國家最大福利。

This research used the Commercial PolicyAnalysis System(COMPAS)model developed by the US International Trade Commission to quantify the effects of exercising the anti-dumping duties on the art paper industry and the ripple effects on the upstreamand downstreamsectors aswell as the whole economy in Taiwan. The empirical results show that the imposition of anti-dumping duties not only provides gains fromincreasing current account surplus, but also transfers considerable welfare benefits from consumers to the industry. The price of domestic like products increases, which is beneficial to the art paper and its upstream industries. However, the downstream industries as well as the overall economic welfare may suffer. Given that there has been no ruling against anti-dumping duties in Taiwan, our results support a legal ramificationwith the lesser duty rule in place and suggest that a comprehensive impact assessment and the trade-offs between national interests and industry gain should be taken into considerations in the future anti-dumping investigations.