溫室氣體減量之遵循成本與健康附屬效益

COMPLIANCE COST AND HEALTH ANCILLARY BENEFIT OF GREENHOUSE GASES ABATEMENT

本研究根據環境流行病學方法，建立臺灣地區溫室氣體減量之健康附屬效益推估模型，並以「淨成本」（減量之遵循成本扣除健康附屬效益）的觀點出發，評析我國氣候政策之研擬。本研究模擬情境之設定係參酌後京都時期減量模式之發展趨勢，以備受國際矚目之「延續京都模式」（continuing Kyoto）及兼具減量與經濟成長的「密集度減量模式」為例進行八種不同模擬，探討總量減量模式搭配國際排放交易及密集度減量模式下， 國際排放交易參與國不同時，對臺灣總體經濟、健康附屬效益、平均淨成本之影響，並據此說明忽略健康附屬效益，將如何影響氣候政策之整合評估。

The goal of this research is to explore the climate policy design for Taiwan. According to the conclusion of the total quantity control target drawn fromthe 1998 national energy conference and the carbon intensity target, eight scenarios are simulated to examine the implications of participation in international emission trading and the carbon intensity target. For each of the scenarios, the health ancillary benefits, in addition to the compliance costs, are estimated based on the study of environmental epidemiology. The eight scenarios are then evaluated based on their net costs (i.e., compliance costsminus ancillary benefits). The economic significance of the ancillary benefits in the integrated climate policy design is also expounded.