我國永續發展之能源價格政策

AN ENERGY PRICING POLICY FOR THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TAIWAN

本文評估京都議定書生效對臺灣經濟之影響，並針對溫室氣體減量之各種能源價格政策作政策模擬並提出政策建議。政策模擬模型為臺灣動態一般均衡模型。本文主要結論如下：由於近十年來臺灣的二氧化碳減量成效不彰，政府若不及早因應京都議定書生效將使臺灣未來的產業及國家經濟發展發生投資風險， 而其對經濟成長的影響可高到-1.57%。若能採取逐步漸進的能源價格政策，將能在對經濟成長負面影響最小的情況下， 達到有效降低CO2 排放的目的。為了降低溫室氣體減量之各種能源價格政策對經濟之負面影響， 並避免發生過度調整的現象， 建議首先讓油電價格合理反映其燃料成本之變動並進行隨油課徵汽燃費之改制。如果減量效果仍達不到減量目標值再實施逐步漸進的碳稅課徵及配套的全面綠色租稅改革。

The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of the Kyoto Protocol and energy pricing policies on Taiwan’s economy. Policy recommendations will be drawn from the findings. The simulationmodel employed is the Dynamic General EquilibriumModel of Taiwan (DGEMT). Themain conclusion is as follows: The CO2 reduction policy performed very poorly in Taiwan during the past decade. If the government does not react immediately the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol might lead to a significant country risk for investment in Taiwan. The negative effect might reduce the economic growth rate as much as −1.57 percentage points. A progressive energy pricing policy will be useful to achieve the target of CO2 reductionwithout significantly damaging economic growth. To avoid an overshooting effect, it is also suggested that the priority one policy be to allow energy prices to fully reflect their production cost and to reformthe automobile fuel fee or road-maintenance fee fromtax on cars to asx on oil products. If further CO2 reduction is needed, a progressive carbon tax together with a package of green tax reformis then recommended.