金融發展、經濟成長與通貨膨脹的門檻效果

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND INFLATIONARY THRESHOLD EFFECTS

有關金融發展對經濟成長影響的實證研究， 國內、外文獻已有廣大的研究成果， 然而兩者間的關係在不同的經濟狀態下是否會發生結構性改變， 則是本文所欲進一步探討的課題。本文引進門檻迴歸模型（threshold regressionmodel）， 以通貨膨脹率作為門檻變數， 探討臺灣地區在不同通膨率門檻值下，金融發展對經濟成長的影響效果有何不同。實證結果支持金融發展與經濟成長之間存在通貨膨脹的門檻效果，當通膨率低於7.2526% （或6.6813%） 的狀態下，持續進行金融發展可以促進經濟成長；但在通膨率高於此一門檻值的狀態下， 持續發展金融對經濟成長的影響效果並不顯著。因此過去國內文獻支持金融發展可以促進經濟成長的結論，只有在低通膨的狀態下才成立；但在高通膨的狀態下， 兩者間的關係會消失。我們採用三種不同的金融發展指標， 並進行穩健性檢測，再將實證結果與現有文獻的推論做一比較。

This paper applies a threshold regression model of Hansen (1996) to investigate the existence of inflation threshold effects in the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Results indicate that there exists an inflationary threshold effect in Taiwan. Previous studies support the view that financial developmentmay promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn fromthe empirical findings suggests that it can only be achieved under lowandmoderate inflation. In addition, the threshold level of inflation below which financial development significantly promotes growth is estimated at 7.2526%(or 6.6813%). We use various variables of financial development to test the robustness, and also compare the empirical results with related literature.