臺灣與美國跨國景氣互動之分析－－從產業關聯層面探討

EVIDENCE OF THE TAIWAN-U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE—AN INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

雖然國際貿易對臺灣經濟表現的影響力不容輕忽，但文獻上卻鮮少對兩者間景氣如何互動作嚴謹的分析。本文以臺灣最重要的貿易夥伴–美國為對象， 研析在兩經濟的交互作用中， 何種產業具明顯的影響力。樣本資料涵蓋1980 至2000 年9 個大業別與24 個中業別的產出資料， 其中行業分類標準，臺灣的部分採用1996 年版， 美國的部分採用1972 與1987 年版。實證結果支持以下四點重要的結論： （1）臺灣與美國對口產業的相關性，以製造業及運輸、倉儲與通信業（合計占民間部門總產出40%） 較明顯。而兩大業別中， 又以石油、電力電子、倉儲及通信等業別與美國對口產業的關聯性較深； （2） 該等產業與美國對口產業之相關程度， 高於它們與臺灣其他產業總產出的相關； （3）誤差修正迴歸模式的結果顯示： （i） 臺灣的電力電子及運輸、倉儲與通信業與美國對口業別的產出， 保持著基本面的長期結構關係； （ii） 臺灣的製造、電力電子及運輸、倉儲與通信業與美國的總產出， 維繫著基本面的長期結構關係；（iii）臺灣的製造、石油、電力電子及運輸、倉儲與通信等業別與美國的總產出及對口業別的產出， 保有著短暫的動態調整關聯； （4） 圖形說明及相關與迴歸分析均證實， 不論自基本面的長期結構面向， 或從短暫的動態調整關聯， 電力電子業係維持臺灣與美國出現跨國景氣聯動現象的最重要業別。

Despite the appealing essentiality of foreign trade for Taiwan, the linkages between international and Taiwan’s business cycles have seldom been thoroughly analyzed. On account of this yet to be fully explored area, this article examines a crucial part of these linkages by looking at the industry-level national income accounts for Taiwan and the U.S.. Adopting the Standard Industry Classification System of Taiwan (1996) and the U.S. (1972 & 1987), we assembled annual data for 9 two-digit and 24 three-digit sectoral outputs over a 20-year period from 1981 to 2000. The empirical results support the following conclusions: (1) Taiwanese manufacturing and transportation/communications outputs are strongly correlated with corresponding U.S. sectors. Formanufacturing, links arise in electric and electronic equipment, instruments and related products (EIRP), and petroleum products; for transportion/communications (T/C) they arise in warehousing and communications. These sectors account for about 40 per cent of Taiwan’s private-sector output. (2) The growth in the aforementioned sectoral outputs is more related to the forces of their U.S. counterparts than with overall growth of Taiwan. (3) The error-correction regression analysis establishes: (i) Long-run fundamental cross-country sectoral linkages in EIRP and T/C; (ii) Long-run fundamental cross-country aggregate linkages in manufacturing, EIRP, and T/C; (iii) The manifestation of short-run, transitory effects of changes in sectoral or aggregate output on particular Taiwanese industries, including manufacturing, petroleum products, EIRP, and T/C. (4) Overall, both correlation and regression analyses provide evidence in favor of the strong linkage between Taiwanese and the U.S. EIRP sector.