生產依賴性，國際景氣循環與經濟整合：臺灣之實證分析

PRODUCTION INTERDEPENDENCE, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION － AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TAIWAN

本文建立一兩國國際景氣循環模型，探討國家之間景氣波動連結關係。理論架構是以Hallett and Piscitelli （2002） 的簡化模型為分析基礎，得到一跨國向量自我迴歸關係式。本文主要的結論為：假設跨國間產出衝擊無相關下，則國際間生產依賴程度與產出相關性的關係不為負；此外，若跨國間產出衝擊相關性不為零時，產出的相關性決定於本國與外國衝擊變異數及共變數的相對大小。本文以臺灣及其主要貿易15 國做實證研究在不同的長期趨勢設定下，臺灣與大部分的國家隨著生產面依賴程度增強國際景氣循環之相關性將愈高，亦即與這些國家均具有進一步經濟整合的條件。

This paper examines the links between the international business cycle and economic integration. We modify the model developed by Hallett and Piscitelli (2002), and use a VAR model to indicate the correlation with the business cycle. The findings suggest that if the cross-country productivity shocks are uncorrelated, the production interdependence and output correlation would be non-negatively related. Otherwise, the relationship would be determined by the relative sizes of variance and covariance in outputs between the two countries. Our empirical study shows that the productivity shocks of Taiwan and its major trading countries are uncorrelated, and Taiwan has the potential for increased economic integration with other countries.