開放經濟體系勞工退休制度之總體經濟計量分析

A MACRO-ECONOMETRICS ANALYSIS ON LABOR RETIREMENT SYSTEM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY OF TAIWAN

本文以開放體系台灣總體經濟計量模型分析勞工退休不同提撥制度對台灣總體經濟之效果，俾供政府研擬相關政策參考。本研究發現，台灣若自2002年開始實施勞工退休金個人帳戶制，在四種不同設定（提撥率有甲乙兩案，基金餘額利用效率分高低兩種，勞工退休金之提撥由勞、資雙協議）下，對台灣總體經濟之衝擊，長、短期效果不盡相同。整體言之，四種不同設定之勞工退休金個人帳戶制對後期實質產出多有不等之正面效果。由於勞工退休金部份由資方負擔，任何程度的經營成本增加都不利民間投資，因此，在支出面及生產面都受到負面衝擊。在勞工個人帳戶制實施初期，勞工退休領回之年金不多，對民間消費增加的效果遠不及廠商投資之縮減效果。因此，短期退休基金對總體經濟正面效果無法抵銷民間消費及廠商投資之縮減效果，整體國內生產呈現負面效果，長期則反之。

The paper analyzes the effects of various labor retirement pension fund systems on Taiwan’s overall economy. Four different designs are proposed. The results show different impacts in the short run and long run. In general, the four designs generate negative effects on real output in the early stage, but positive ones in the later period. Among them, the result of B-8 has the biggest influence. Because the employers have to bear a certain degree of the retirement pensions, any change will cause production costs to increase, and consequently depress their investment. Therefore, negative effects will show on both investment and production. On the other hand, laborers can only receive a small portion of their pensions in the early stage. As a result, in the short run, the positive effect from the retirement pensions cannot offset the negative one from the contraction in the private sector. However, we can see the reverse is true in the long run.