立法院老人議題的質詢趨勢與模式

THE TREND AND THE MODE OF LEGISLATIVE INTERPELLATION SESSIONS HELD ON ISSUES CONCERNING THE ELDERLY

本文根據台灣過去二十年的『立法院公報』，建立各黨派立委對各項老人議題質詢次數的「橫斷面長期追蹤資料」（panel or longitudinal data）藉以探討各黨派對各項老人議題的質詢趨勢，以及各黨派的質詢次數與選舉循環之關聯性。採用「雙向效果方法」（two-way effects approach）進行估計的結果，主要有二：一、除了「老人安養」和「其他福利」兩項議題的質詢模式分屬「傳統迴歸模型」和「隨機效果模型」外，各黨派立委對「醫療保健」、「老人照顧」、「國民年金」和「退休金」等四項老人議題的質詢模式均傾向於「政黨固定效果模型」。二、各黨派立委對各項老人議題的質詢次數與歷次選舉之間，呈高度正相關；這種質詢頻率隨著選舉循環而顯著同向變動的現象乃Campbell（1992）所稱的「外生性」質詢模式的一種。

This paper gathers a panel data set from The Bulletin of the Legislative Yuan (1981–1999) to examine the trends of legislative interpellation sessions held on a variety of issues concerning the elderly, as well as their relationships with the electoral cycle. Two of our main findings from the two-way (two-factor ) effects estimation approach are as follows. First, the classical regression model and the random-effects model tend to fit somewhat better the data on numbers of interpellation sessions held on issues concerning nursing care and other general services for the elderly, respectively. In another way, the fixed-effects model would be more appropriate for the data on numbers of interpellation sessions held on issues concerning medical care, long-term care, allowances or subsidies, and retirement pensions for the elderly. Second, the number of interpellation sessions held by the legislators of any individual political party for each issue concerning the elderly is highly correlated with the electoral cycle and thus is a kind of artifactual mode as illustrated in Campbell (1992).