China's Rising Power, the U.S. Rebalance to Asia, and Implications for U.S.-China Relations

The Obama administration's “rebalance to Asia” has many elements of continuity with past policy, including recognition that rapid growth and economic dynamism have greatly expanded the Asia-Pacific region's economic and strategic weight and importance to U.S. interests. Administration officials emphasize that the rebalance involves a comprehensive diplomatic, economic, and military approach that pays more attention to India, Southeast Asia, and regional institutions; that the timing was dictated largely by the need for clear priorities to guide force development in an era of declining spending; and that demand by U.S. allies and partners for an increased U.S. commitment to the region played an important role in shaping the rebalance. U.S. diplomatic, economic, and military efforts to implement the rebalance demonstrate a significant increase in strategic attention to the Asia-Pacific region, matched by commitments of diplomatic, economic, and military resources, including the time of senior U.S. leaders. Chinese officials and scholars have reacted by expressing concern and skepticism about the stated U.S. rationale, lamenting the “lack of strategic trust” between Washington and Beijing, urging greater respect for Chinese “core interests,” and stressing negative consequences of the rebalance for Asian security (especially its supposed role in emboldening U.S. allies and partners to challenge Chinese maritime territorial claims). At the same time, they have redoubled efforts to stabilize Sino-U.S. relations and to build a “new type of great power relations.” A key implementation challenge is making the rebalance robust enough to reassure U.S. allies and partners of the U.S. capability and will to maintain its presence in Asia over the long-term, while not alarming Chinese leaders to the point where they forego cooperation with Washington. U.S. and Chinese leaders should work to expand and deepen the scope of bilateral cooperation on common interests, while seeking ways to limit and manage competitive aspects of U.S.-China relations.