The Tyranny of Numbers Revisited and the Case of China's Manufacturing Growth: Factor Allocation, Structural Adjustment and Productivity Dynamics

In this paper we adopt the methodology proposed by Olley and Pakes to estimate total factor productivity in Chinese manufacturing industries using the 2001-2007 annual survey of manufacturing factories. The changes in TFP are decomposed both at the sectoral and the industry level using the Baily-Hulten-Campbell and Syrquin approaches. We find that the nature of growth of Chinese manufacturing has not changed fundamentally during the period, particularly in terms of the high dependence on intermediate inputs. At the inter-industry level, current changes in TFP mainly originate from the increase in the internal TFPs of different industries. Although the influence of structural adjustment on TFP is positive its value is still low, suggesting that significant potential for improvement in productivity in manufacturing through adjustments in structure still exists. At the intra-industry level, the improvement in TFP in different industries can be mainly attributed to the reallocation of resources and output quotas, which results from enhanced competition.